William Burns thinks that Beijing is learning as many lessons as it can to take Taiwan
Chinese President Xi Jinping is “unsettled” by the West’s reaction to Russia’s military operation in Ukraine, and is looking “carefully at what lessons [he] should draw” and apply to a potential invasion of Taiwan, CIA Director William Burns told a conference on Saturday.
Speaking at a Financial Times conference in Washington DC on Saturday, Burns told his audience that his agency figures that Russia’s advance through Eastern Ukraine and the scale of the West’s response may be influencing Beijing’s plans for Taiwan.
“It strikes us . . . that Xi Jinping is a little bit unsettled by the reputational damage that can come to China by the association with the brutishness of Russia’s aggression against Ukrainians [and] unsettled certainly by the economic uncertainty that’s been produced by the war,” Burns claimed.
The spy chief added that China is taken aback by “the fact that what Putin has done is driving Europeans and Americans closer together” and is looking “carefully at what lessons they should draw” for a potential takeover of Taiwan.
While American pundits and politicians – and leaders in Taipei and the broader East Asia region – have repeatedly warned that Russia’s offensive against Ukraine could “embolden” China to make a move on Taiwan, that has not transpired. While Beijing maintains that Taiwan is its territory, no signs of an imminent invasion or attack on the island have emerged.
However, the Taiwanese military has held live-fire military exercises in recent months, and the US government has pressed Taipei to order American weapons designed to repel a seaborne invasion by China. Beijing, meanwhile, has reportedly penetrated the island’s air defense zone on numerous occasions, with the most recent incursion on Friday involving nuclear-capable bombers, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense said.
“I don’t for a minute think that [the Ukraine conflict has] eroded Xi’s determination over time to gain control over Taiwan,” Burns continued on Saturday. However, he claimed that events in Ukraine are surely “affecting their calculation.”
China has resisted Western calls to denounce and sanction Russia over the war in Ukraine, and has named the post-Cold War expansion of NATO into Eastern Europe as a key factor behind the conflict. Beijing has also condemned what it sees as US-led efforts to build anti-China alliances, such as the ‘AUKUS’ (US, UK and Australia) and ‘Quad’ (US, Australia, India and Japan) pacts.
Although Burns described Xi’s “main focus” as being on “predictability,” it is unlikely that Beijing is overly concerned with the “reputational damage” mentioned by the spy chief. China has already hammered the US and EU for accusing it of human rights abuses and has accused Washington of “war crimes” in response. Likewise, when urged by NATO leadership to condemn Russia, China’s foreign ministry in March said it would not listen to a “lecture on justice from the abuser of international law.”
The UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) issued a statement of deep concern on Saturday in response to an announcement made by the Taliban de facto authorities saying that women should only leave their homes in cases of necessity and then, with their faces covered in public.
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The reported test launch likely involved a ballistic missile, South Korean media claimed
North Korea has fired an unidentified projectile into the Sea of Japan, the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) announced on Saturday. Yonhap news agency quoted a military source as saying the incident likely involved a ballistic missile.
The reported test is the second conducted by the North this week and the 15th this year, according to the report. It also comes just days before the swearing-in of South Korea President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol, which is scheduled for Tuesday.
During his campaign, former Prosecutor General Yoon indicated that he would take a more hawkish stance on Pyongyang than his predecessor Moon Jae-in.
At a military parade late last month, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un expressed a “firm will” to continue developing nuclear weapons, and if necessary use them “preemptively” for national defense.
Yoon told Voice of America on Saturday that he does not rule out meeting with Kim in the future. “There is no reason to shun meetings. But if such meetings are only for show and fail to make tangible results on the denuclearization and our economic assistance to the North, they will not be helpful for denuclearizing the North and advancing the inter-Korean relationship.”
The US State Department warned on Friday that North Korea was preparing a nuclear test as early as this month. Pyongyang has not commented on this claim, but has repeatedly insisted that it needs nuclear weapons for defensive purposes.
Then-US President Donald Trump and Kim held a series of historic meetings in 2018 and 2019, raising hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough. However, talks on denuclearization of the Korean peninsula have since stalled.
