Some EU countries could go into recession, according to the organization
A total shutdown of Russian gas supplies to the EU could reduce the GDP of the most vulnerable member states by up to 6% and send them into a recession, the International Monetary Fund said in a blogpost on Tuesday.
The warning comes amid fears that Russian gas deliveries to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline may not resume after the routine annual maintenance ends on Thursday.
Earlier this week, the Wall Street Journal, citing European Budget Commissioner Johannes Hahn, reported that the European Commission did not expect the pipeline to restart. On Tuesday, the commission’s spokesperson said it was planning for all scenarios regarding Russian gas flows to Europe through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. According to Reuters’ sources, the gas flows will restart as scheduled“but at lower than its full capacity.”
The IMF noted that Europe lacks a comprehensive plan to cope with gas shortages, which could lead to energy price increases and slower growth. The Washington-based fund said that Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic are the three EU member states likely to suffer the most in case of a complete shutoff.
“The prospect of an unprecedented total shutoff is fueling concern about gas shortages, still higher prices, and economic impacts. While policymakers are moving swiftly, they lack a blueprint to manage and minimize impact,” the IMF wrote.
Warning that central and eastern Europe could see shortages of as much as 40% of gas consumption and that GDP could shrink by up to 6%, the fund suggests that these countries should secure “alternative supplies and energy sources” and encourage energy savings and expand solidarity agreements to share gas across countries.
The IMF notes that Europe’s energy infrastructure and global supply have so far coped with a 60% drop in Russian gas deliveries since June last year, and could potentially handle a reduction of up to 70% by accessing alternative supplies and energy sources.
However, the fund warns that a complete shutoff would make diversification much harder as bottlenecks could reduce the ability to reroute gas within Europe because of insufficient import capacity or transmission constraints.
The IMF added that in case of a total shutdown, the entire EU could suffer a drop in economic output of almost 3% over the next year. It notes that while some countries like Sweden, Denmark, and Greece would likely see little to no impact on growth, Italy, due to its high reliance on gas in electricity production, could experience a drop of over 5%.
“The effects on Austria and Germany would be less severe but still significant, depending on the availability of alternative sources and the ability to lower household gas consumption,” the fund said.
After Russia launched its military operation in Ukraine in late February, the EU passed six packages of sanctions to punish Moscow. The bloc, which receives roughly 40% of its gas from Russia, has been trying to rapidly reduce its reliance on the country’s energy as part of restrictive measures.
Russian President Vladimir Putin noted on Tuesday that Brussels imposed sanctions on Moscow and closed off supply routes, but is now blaming its gas shortages on Russia and energy giant Gazprom.
Russia is ready to deliver as much gas as the bloc needs, if the EU is ready to stop “stepping on rakes,” he told a media conference while visiting Tehran.
“Gazprom has always honored, and will continue to honor its commitments,” he said.
SAN SALVADOR, Jul 19 (IPS) – The immigration agreement reached in Los Angeles, California at the end of the Summit of the Americas, hosted by U.S. President Joe Biden, raises more questions than answers and the likelihood that once again there will be more noise than actual benefits for migrants, especially Central Americans.
Since the start of the war with Russia, the Biden administration has mostly ignored Ukraine’s corruption history. Questions resurfaced about its suitability as a recipient of massive infusions of aid.
(Image credit: Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP)
Some EU countries could go into recession, according to the organization
A total shutdown of Russian gas supplies to the EU could reduce the GDP of the most vulnerable member states by up to 6% and send them into a recession, the International Monetary Fund said in a blogpost on Tuesday.
The warning comes amid fears that Russian gas deliveries to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline may not resume after the routine annual maintenance ends on Thursday.
Earlier this week, the Wall Street Journal, citing European Budget Commissioner Johannes Hahn, reported that the European Commission did not expect the pipeline to restart. On Tuesday, the commission’s spokesperson said it was planning for all scenarios regarding Russian gas flows to Europe through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. According to Reuters’ sources, the gas flows will restart as scheduled“but at lower than its full capacity.”
The IMF noted that Europe lacks a comprehensive plan to cope with gas shortages, which could lead to energy price increases and slower growth. The Washington-based fund said that Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic are the three EU member states likely to suffer the most in case of a complete shutoff.
“The prospect of an unprecedented total shutoff is fueling concern about gas shortages, still higher prices, and economic impacts. While policymakers are moving swiftly, they lack a blueprint to manage and minimize impact,” the IMF wrote.
Warning that central and eastern Europe could see shortages of as much as 40% of gas consumption and that GDP could shrink by up to 6%, the fund suggests that these countries should secure “alternative supplies and energy sources” and encourage energy savings and expand solidarity agreements to share gas across countries.
The IMF notes that Europe’s energy infrastructure and global supply have so far coped with a 60% drop in Russian gas deliveries since June last year, and could potentially handle a reduction of up to 70% by accessing alternative supplies and energy sources.
However, the fund warns that a complete shutoff would make diversification much harder as bottlenecks could reduce the ability to reroute gas within Europe because of insufficient import capacity or transmission constraints.
The IMF added that in case of a total shutdown, the entire EU could suffer a drop in economic output of almost 3% over the next year. It notes that while some countries like Sweden, Denmark, and Greece would likely see little to no impact on growth, Italy, due to its high reliance on gas in electricity production, could experience a drop of over 5%.
“The effects on Austria and Germany would be less severe but still significant, depending on the availability of alternative sources and the ability to lower household gas consumption,” the fund said.
After Russia launched its military operation in Ukraine in late February, the EU passed six packages of sanctions to punish Moscow. The bloc, which receives roughly 40% of its gas from Russia, has been trying to rapidly reduce its reliance on the country’s energy as part of restrictive measures.
Russian President Vladimir Putin noted on Tuesday that Brussels imposed sanctions on Moscow and closed off supply routes, but is now blaming its gas shortages on Russia and energy giant Gazprom.
Russia is ready to deliver as much gas as the bloc needs, if the EU is ready to stop “stepping on rakes,” he told a media conference while visiting Tehran.
“Gazprom has always honored, and will continue to honor its commitments,” he said.
SAN SALVADOR, Jul 19 (IPS) – The immigration agreement reached in Los Angeles, California at the end of the Summit of the Americas, hosted by U.S. President Joe Biden, raises more questions than answers and the likelihood that once again there will be more noise than actual benefits for migrants, especially Central Americans.
Since the start of the war with Russia, the Biden administration has mostly ignored Ukraine’s corruption history. Questions resurfaced about its suitability as a recipient of massive infusions of aid.
(Image credit: Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP)
New rules state that those doing so will be thrown out of the military, the MoD has said
The UK’s Ministry of Defence will no longer allow its troops to engage the services of prostitutes while stationed abroad. The measure is part of a campaign to fight abuse in its ranks, the British military announced on Tuesday.
The new restrictions are included in a package of new policies meant to tackle sexual exploitation and abuse in the military. Any service member found in violation of the new conduct rules, which include using the services of sex workers while deployed abroad, will be thrown out of the military, the ministry noted.
However, the document does not address the issue of soliciting such services on UK soil, where prostitution is legal.
“This policy supports Defence’s commitment to crack down on unacceptable sexual behaviour and prohibits all sexual activity which involves the abuse of power, including buying sex whilst abroad. The policy will ensure that every allegation will be responded to, no matter where the allegation takes place, and introduces a presumption of discharge for anyone found to be engaging in the targeted behaviours,” the statement reads.
The new policy also prohibits personnel from sexual relations with those of more junior rank, an arrangement that could be considered an “imbalance of power.”
In order to prevent such incidents, the ministry intends to take preventative measures, including raising awareness and understanding of the issues and providing training related to the various types of sex-related transgressions.
“Abusive, discriminatory or predatory behaviour has no place in our Armed Forces and these measures send a clear message that these types of behaviours will not be tolerated”, said Leo Docherty, UK Minister for Defence People.
Meanwhile, Ben Wallace, the UK’s defense secretary, failed to explain why it took the Armed Forces so long to come up with such policies.
“Don’t ask me, I’m the defence secretary who’s now taken it over, and life’s moved on. It’s a different generation. I was in the army in 1991 in Germany, and things are different,” he said, speaking at an air show in Farnborough.
The new policies were adopted after the behavior of British soldiers stationed abroad came under renewed scrutiny due a report last year that a Kenyan woman named Agnes Wanjiru was in fact killed by a UK serviceman in 2012. The victim had allegedly been providing sex services to British soldiers. After what was claimed to be a party with British troops at the Lions Court hotel in the town of Nanyuki, the victim’s body was reportedly found in a septic tank behind the building.
